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SECOND SUBSCRIPTION DRIVE – 2014 – FINAL WEEK

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JULY 8,  2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:16 P.M. ET: 

GAZA WAR – For the first time, Hamas rockets reached Jerusalem and Tel Aviv today, essentially changing the nature of military action in the region.  The rockets did little damage.  Some were shot down by Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile system.  (Remember when they laughed at Ronald Reagan for wanting to develop anti-missile missiles?  Now they're being used.)  Israel responded by stepping up its air attacks on Hamas positions in Gaza.  At the same time, Obama's Mideast adviser picked today, a day of combat, to deliver a blistering speech in Israel lambasting the Israeli government.  It was sickening, and totally inept, but no one seemed to care.  The world has Obama's number, and has found that it's zero.

SHOCK, SHOCK – Are we to really believe that some images of the "suffering" in Gaza are actually fakes?  From The Blaze:  "An analysis by the BBC has uncovered that many of the images posted under the hashtag #GazaUnderAttack aren’t recent — and weren’t even taken in Gaza.  The hashtag has been used 'hundreds of thousands of times,' the BBC reported, providing a platform for those sharing photographs of what they purport to be destruction caused by Israeli strikes launched in recent days in response to sustained rocket attacks by Hamas and other Palestinian terrorist groups in Gaza.  'Some of the images are of the current situation in Gaza, but a #BBCtrending analysis has found that some date as far back as 2009 and others are from conflicts in Syria and Iraq,' the BBC reported."  This is hardly the first time that the Islamic militant side has faked photos.  There are countless examples, and Western news organizations are taken in, or want to be taken in.

NO CLASS – From the Washington Examiner:  "The National Organization for Women, one of the nation's largest pro-abortion lobbies, named a Catholic order of nuns to a list called 'The Dirty 100,' a catalog of the 100 entities which filed lawsuits against the Affordable Care Act's contraception mandate.  The order of nuns NOW finds 'dirty' are the Little Sisters of the Poor, a religious institute for women founded by St. Jeanne Jugan in 19th century France. They are dedicated to care of the elderly impoverished, and describe their spiritual charism as 'grace of hospitality toward the aged poor.'"  NOW has never represented American women.  It represents a fringe, and has never conducted itself with anything approaching feminine sensitivity.  This is another example. 

POTENTIAL TRAGEDY – From Breitbart:  "MURRIETA -- Demonstrators opposed to illegal immigration stood their ground again at the Murrieta Border Patrol station on Monday, where U.S. Border Patrol had been scheduled to transfer a third round of buses, with approximately 140 illegal aliens aboard in total, transferred from overcrowded Texas detention facilities.  For a third time, the buses were rerouted to the San Ysidro, California Border Patrol station, near the U.S.-Mexico border, for processing. The demonstrators gathered in areas to the north and south of the Murrieta station after law enforcement blocked off the road near the station itself. "  This is a flashpoint.  The issue is not the demonstrators, but what happens if the authorities try to clear them.  I fear another Waco.

July 8, 2014       Permalink 

LATEST POLLING – AT 11:26 A.M. ET:   Here are latest Quinnipiac poll results, both presidential and congressional.  They tend to be in line with what I've been reading and seeing.  From The Politico: 

Sen. Rand Paul narrowly leads a tight 2016 Republican presidential field, while Hillary Clinton remains comfortably ahead among Democrats, a new poll says.

According to a Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday, the Kentucky senator leads the way among national Republican voters with 11 percent of the vote in a potential 2016 GOP primary. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush all tied for second with 10 percent of the vote.

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and 2012 vice presidential nominee Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan all pulled in 8 percent of the vote. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio received 6 percent.
Twenty percent of Republican voters remain undecided, underscoring a 2016 GOP presidential field with a lot of potential candidates but no clear favorite.

And that's the point.  The GOP contest is unformed.  These early polls prove that.  We have a long way to go to choose a nominee, and it may well be someone not even mentioned. 

Democrats, on the other hand, still have a clear front-runner in former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who received 58 percent of the vote in a potential Democratic primary. Sen. Elizabeth Warren came in a distant second with 11 percent of the vote, Vice President Joe Biden received 9 percent and New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo got 4 percent. Warren has said repeatedly that she isn’t running for president, though she has received considerable support from some in the liberal wing of the party.

I find that result interesting.  All the bad publicity hasn't much dented Hillary's standing, although that could change down the line.  There are reports, not confirmed, that Obama will endorse Warren, not Clinton, setting up a family feud of epic proportions.

Clinton also performed well in head-to-head matchups with many Republican candidates. In one-on-one matchups, voters preferred her to Christie, Paul, Huckabee, Bush and Ryan by anywhere from 7 to 9 percentage points. Clinton maintains a clear advantage among women, who gave her at least a 16-point edge in each of those matchups.

Actually, 7-9 points is smaller than leads registered in previous polls.

The poll also reported a divided electorate ahead of the 2014 congressional midterm elections. Forty-six percent of voters would like to see Republicans take control of the Senate, compared with 44 percent who would like Democrats to retain control. Voters reported a negative view of both parties, though they reported stronger negative feelings toward the Republican Party and congressional Republicans.

This is a key to Republican woes.  No matter how bad the Obama administration is, the Republican Party remains unpopular.  That unpopularity is digging into what should be a natural electoral advantage.

July 8, 2014        Permalink

IRAN LATEST – AT 9:58 A.M. ET:  The formal goal is to have a nuclear agreement with Iran by July 20th.  That's 12 days away, and the talks aren't going very well.  (They can, of course, be extended.)  Indeed, the Iranians reportedly have made few concessions, and their leaders are becoming more, not less, demanding.   I suspect they sense that the sanctions regime, which held them in place, is starting to collapse, and that they can play for time.  From AFP: 

TEHRAN, Iran — Iran’s supreme leader revealed Tuesday that it ultimately wants 190,000 nuclear centrifuges — a figure he said was 19 times higher than world powers want to allow under a deal being discussed in Vienna.

The comments, published on Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s website on Tuesday, represent a dramatic intervention in the nuclear negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 group of Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States, plus Germany.

The talks have been taking place behind closed doors and Khamenei’s remarks are the most open declaration yet of Iran’s demands.

“Their aim is that we accept a capacity of 10,000 separative work units, which is equivalent to 10,000 centrifuges of the older type that we already have,” the supreme leader said, referring to the machines used in uranium enrichment.

“Our officials say we need 190,000. Perhaps not today, but in two to five years that is the country’s absolute need,” Khamenei, who has the final word on all matters of state, was quoted as saying.

Uranium enrichment can produce fuel for nuclear power stations or, in highly extended form, the core of an atomic bomb. The process is the most sensitive matter in the negotiations between Iran and the P5+1.

According to American media reports, the United States may accept Iran having between 2,000 and 4,000 centrifuges.

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said last month that Iran could retain “several hundred centrifuges” but he said the Iranians were asking for “hundreds of thousands.”

The accord being sought by the P5+1 aims to finally allay international concerns about Iran’s nuclear ambitions and silence talk of possible military action.

COMMENT:  Our fear is that Obama will cave in, as he always does, or agree to drag out the talks for so long that the sanctions regime collapses completely, under pressure from business interests, giving Iran no motive to make any concessions at all.

We used to believe that the credible threat of a Western military strike, aimed at destroying Iran's nuclear program, would provide incentive for the mullahs to agree to something reasonable.  But Obama has essentially taken the military option off the table, handing a huge advantage to the Iranians.  You never take the military option off the table.

But other questions arise:  Will the mainstream media continue to cover for Obama if the Iranian talks fail?  And will the Republican Party actually care, or start moving in the direction of Rand Paul, who has taken a soft line on Iran?  Wouldn't it be tragic if Iran's greatest ally turns out to be the party that used to be the party of Ronald Reagan?

July 8, 2014       Permalink

SHREWD ENEMY – AT 9:29 A.M. ET:  Just because the enemy in the Mideast is fanatical, that doesn't mean he's dumb.   It turns out that the group threatening Syria and Iraq, and reportedly moving into the Palestinian areas, is a shrewd operator that knows how to run its affairs.  From The Hill: 

When the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) stormed into Iraq and captured Mosul, the largest city in northern Iraq, the group not only walked away with a tremendous amount of abandoned military hardware, but also raided the city's central bank and took off with some $425 million. Perhaps even more amazing is that the group was already one of the best-funded terrorist groups in the world.

ISIS, which has renamed itself the Islamic State and unilaterally declared the reestablishment of an Islamic caliphate, has been financially self-sufficient for at least eight years, according to U.S. government estimates. Remember that before it renamed itself the Islamic State, the group was known as ISIS, as the Islamic State of Iraq, as al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), as Majlis Shura al-Mujahidin and as Jamaat al-Tawhid wa-l-Jihad.

And unlike other groups, which are reliant on state sponsors, major donors or abuse of charity, the group now calling itself the Islamic State has been financially independent by virtue of engaging in tremendously successful criminal activity enterprises.

By 2006, when the group was still known as AQI, it was already bringing in approximately $70 million through criminal activities. According to a November 2006 U.S. government assessment cited in The New York Times, AQI and other groups had successfully created a self-sustaining insurgency in Iraq, raising from $70 million to $200 million a year from illegal activities alone. The assessment highlighted oil smuggling, kidnapping for ransom and political corruption as the most significant and profitable enterprises. Even during the height of the Iraq War — and in large part because of it — AQI had established an independent financial structure.

COMMENT:  Read the whole piece.  This is fascinating stuff.  Far from defeating radical Islam in the years since 9/11, the threat has grown, and is now growing dramatically.  And these movements are taking on the characteristics of states.

And the response of the United States is an indifferent president and growing isolationism.  A price will be paid down the line.  But who cares about the next generation, right?  Hey, if it feels good, do it.  We're back to the spirit of the sixties.

July 8, 2014       Permalink

NEW MIDEAST FLAREUP – AT 9:03 A.M. ET:  And a new one seems to crop up almost every day, a direct result of the signal being sent from Washington that America is now a weak, vacillating nation with no real foreign policy to speak of.  The Israel/Gaza border has flared up as a result of incessant rocket attacks from Hamas terrorists (known as "militants" in the politically correct press).  They wouldn't be doing this if they felt there was a price to be paid.  But the price, some mild statements from Washington, is very small indeed.  From the Jerusalem Post: 

IDF chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Benny Gantz requested the call-up of 40,000 reserves in order to replace conscripted forces in the West Bank, and enable their deployment to the Gaza border.
The Prime Minister's Office would not confirm reports that the security cabinet approved the request which was made hours after Operation Protective Edge was launched in an effort to quell rocket fire from the Gaza Strip.

The IDF had previously called up 1,500 reserves on Monday.

Operation Defensive Shield, which has seen the IAF strike some 100 terror targets in the Gaza Strip, came after more than 250 rockets were fired into southern Israel in recent weeks.

The rocket fire continued on Tuesday, with at least 30 rockets fired into Israel, including some which targeted Beersheba and Ashdod.

Following high level security deliberations Tuesday morning Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu decided to expand the military operation in Gaza, including beginning preparations for a ground operation.

No time limit was put on the operation but senior diplomatic officials said it could be "for a long time."

COMMENT:  At the same time, Field Marshal Obama gave an interview to Israel's most left-wing newspaper, which largely features Israel-hating Israeli writers, in which he called, as usual, for "restraint."  That's a code word for pressure on any American ally that happens to be defending itself at the moment. 

Japan recently upgraded its defense plans dramatically, understanding that it could no longer depend entirely on the United States.  I'm sure Israel is getting the message, as are those in Iraq and Afghanistan who tried to help us, and are being abandoned.

The Mideast/west Asia region is the most explosive it's been in decades.  Congratulations Barack!  It's not all your fault, but finding anything you did positively is almost impossible.  In the immortal notion of Dwight Eisenhower, if you give me a week, I might be able to think of something.

July 8, 2014     Permalink

JULY 7,  2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

THAD WINS IN MISSISSIPPI – From AP:  "JACKSON, MISS. — U.S. Sen. Thad Cochran won the state's Republican primary runoff over challenger Chris McDaniel by 7,667 votes, according to a certification made by the state Republican Party and submitted to the Secretary of State on Monday, the legal deadline.  The result was wider than the 6,800-vote win counted by The Associated Press after the June election. Tallies usually change as county parties examine provisional ballots and finalize results.  McDaniel, a state senator from Ellisville, has said he intends to challenge his loss. He said he believes that possibly thousands of voters cast ballots in both the Democratic primary and the Republican runoff, which is illegal. He has not released any documents to support his claim."  McDaniel might be wise to accept the result at this point.  Continued challenges would probably result in complete paralysis on the GOP side, handing a Senate seat to the Democrats.  That would end McDaniel's career.

ESCALATION – Tensions, and actual combat, are escalating between Israel and Hamas, which rules the Gaza Strip and sends operatives into the neighboring Sinai peninsula.  Israel today stepped up air operations to take out missile launchers that have been firing missiles into Israeli towns for days.  The Obama administration has been urging "restraint," which is pretty much what our foreign policy has been reduced to.  Hamas undoubtedly senses the clear weakening of our support for our ally, Israel, which is why it is stubbornly continuing the missile attacks.  The Mideast was a lot more stable before Barack Hussein Obama Jr. took office.

NO HOORAY FOR HOLLYWOOD – From Hollywood Reporter:  "Last year, Despicable Me 2 alone grossed $143.1 million in its first five days after opening on the Wednesday before the Fourth of July, one of the most lucrative holiday stretches of the year in terms of moviegoing. This year, the three new films making a major play eked out a combined $61.4 million during the same period — more bad news for an already miserable summer.  Heading into the holiday, summer box-office revenue was down 15 percent in North America from last year, one of the worst declines in recent memory. Now it's behind by 19.3 percent, or $2.3 billion vs. $2.8 billion, a difference of $500 million, according to Rentrak."  Any film industry that can churn out a piece called "Despicable Me 2" deserves what it gets.  The real action in Hollywood today is in television, which has done some interesting work in recent years.  The feature-film industry, once the king of the business, is now a junior partner, and increasingly a joke.

SPECULATION – A guy from The Hill has come up with an idea that certainly would add zest to the 2016 presidential campaign – a Democratic ticket of Hillary Clinton and...  From The Hill:  "But suppose Hillary is headed back to the White House as P.O.T.U.S. this time with a different Bill in tow. And suppose it was Admiral William McRaven, an American hero of the highest caliber, who led the deadly assault on Osama bin Laden.  The Tampa Tribune reports that McRaven, who has served as commander of Joint Special Operations Command since Aug. 8. 2011, is leaving his job. There are rumors that he could be positioning himself to be Hillary Clinton's vice president.  'I've heard all the rumors,' Vice Admiral Joe McGuire, a close friend of McRaven for almost 40 years, told The Tampa Tribune, which the newspaper notes '[range] from being named the next chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff to running for office as either governor of Texas or even Hillary Clinton's veep.'"  Anyone who heard McRaven's commencement address this year at Texas A&M knows he's a terrific speaker.  And, of course, he's an accomplished leader.  This is not a foolish idea, but who knows whether he's a Democrat or a Republican.

July 7, 2014       Permalink

AS WE CUT OUR NAVY – AT 11:14 A.M. ET:  China is becoming a major seagoing power, leading Japan to upgrade its own defense plans.  The Japanese are horrified at America's new weakness, and will not become pushovers.  The Chinese, also seeing that weakness, continue to gloat.  From the Australian service http://www.news.com.au:

CHINA could have the world’s most potent naval fleet according to a report that it is investing heavily in advanced submarines.

In October last year, Chinese state media showed images of the country’s nuclear powered submarines and now they have released a mock-up of its next-generation nuclear-powered attack submarine.

Reported in The Washington Times , veteran US military analyst Rick Fisher explained the recent development.

“A large outdoor model of a next generation nuclear attack submarine [SSN] has appeared at the People’s Liberation Army Navy [PLAN] submarine academy in Qingdao, China,” he said in a report published by the International Assessment and Strategy Center, a think tank.

“The role of this model may simply be to inspire the academy’s students, but it may signify a larger personnel investment by the PLAN to prepare for its next generation submarines, as it may also offer some indications about a new class of SSN,” he said, referring to the military acronym for attack submarines.

The Chinese advancement in submarines has been impressive and they are building up a sizeable fleet of subs in the region.

The recent mock-up would be the world’s first look at China’s Type-095 attack submarine, the second nuclear-powered attack submarine being built by the Chinese after the current Type-093.
In addition to the attack subs, the Chinese also are building two new ballistic missile submarines, the Type-094 and Type-096 with an estimated range of 7500 kilometres.

COMMENT:  Reagan built a 600-ship Navy, but those ships are getting old, and many are worn out.  The normal life of a modern naval vessel is about 30 years.  The big, nuclear-powered carriers might go longer, but submarines, whose hulls are under constant pressure, require more rapid replacement.  And yet, our fleet is being cut to the size it was in World War I.  That's I, not II.  Enemies always take note.

July 7, 2014       Permalink

CHICAGO HORROR – AT 10:52 A.M. ET:  Having attended the University of Chicago, I have an affection for the city of Chicago.  But the place is a horror story.  What is stunning is how little attention is given nationally to the fact that one of our most important cities is a shooting gallery.  This is the president's home town.  He still has a residence there.  He shows little interest.  From ABC:

Independence Day celebrations were marred by multiple shootings in Chicago that reportedly left at least nine dead and 60 injured.

The first fatal shooting occurred around 2:30 a.m. Friday, kicking off a violent weekend for the city.

Corey Hudson, 34, was killed after a car pulled up and someone inside shot him and a friend on the street. According to ABC News station WLS-TV in Chicago there were also three police-involved shootings on July 4th alone. At least one suspect involved in one of those shootings was killed.

The most recent shootings occurred Sunday night, according to WLS-TV.

They city has been actively combating gang and shooting violence in recent years after a bloody year in 2012, when it was the only city in the nation to record more than 500 homicides.

To bring down the high murder rate, police have been dispatched by the hundreds in dangerous neighborhoods and government officials have worked with community leaders to try to combat violence.

"We will keep building on our strategy, putting more officers on the street in summer months, proactively intervening in gang conflicts, partnering with community leaders," Police Superintendent Garry McCarthy said in a statement.

The strategy appeared to be working, with the number of homicides falling to 415 in 2013 from more than 500 the year before. However the murder rate was still higher than many other U.S. cities. By comparison New York City, which is more than triple the size in population recorded less than 350 murders in 2013.

COMMENT:  Isn't it interesting that the mainstream media never compares New York with Chicago and asks why New York is so successful, whereas Chicago still struggles.  The reason, of course, is that any comparison would have to give great credit to Rudy Giuliani, and that's not what the mainstream media is about.  He is a...a...a Republican. 

Also, Rudy succeeded in part because we went around the "community leaders," who are such favorites of a fawning press.  He saw the crime problem, and went after the criminals, without the support of the Al Sharpton brigades.  On the left, that's a no-no.

July 7, 2014       Permalink

A WARNING FROM HISTORY – AT 9:31 A.M. ET:   A major intelligence archive from the Cold War is being released by Britain today.  Its revelations should scare us, for some of the same techniques used against the west by Moscow can be used today, even within our own country.  From London's Telegraph: 

Booby-trapped caches of weapons are probably still hidden around Britain after being concealed during the Cold War by Soviet agents preparing for conflict, a leading historian has said.

Details of how clandestine stockpiles of small arms and communications gear were hidden across Europe are disclosed in a KGB intelligence archive made public for the first time on Monday.

Documents from the Mitrokhin archive also reveal how a woman considered by some to be the Soviets' most important UK spy was given a medal and lifetime £20-a-month pension “for many years of excellent work” revealing nuclear secrets from her London office.

The trove of files copied down by a senior KGB archivist called Vasili Mitrokhin over a 12 year period before he defected in 1992 is considered one of the most invaluable intelligence sources of the Cold War and provides a detailed insight into Soviet spy operations.

COMMENT:  This is a great story, but don't expect any extensive coverage here.  Whenever Soviet archives are opened, and several have been, the leftist academics and journalists go into action, trying to minimize the importance of the exposed secrets.  Exaggerations!  Bravado!  Even the overwhelming evidence presented by the Venona intercepts – actual intercepts of actual messages, many during World War II – were ridiculed.  Must not destroy the image of the Soviet Union as a put-upon, misunderstood nation.

This new batch is especially disturbing because it reveals the placing of weapons and equipment in a major Western nation.  It is the very thing intelligence people fear today, that weapons, including weapons of mass destruction, could be smuggled across our southern border, or introduced through our ports or airports, and stored for later use.  Wouldn't be that difficult.  A small nuclear weapon would fit in the trunk of a car. 

The left is endlessly playing down real threats, but we now see that the old Soviets did exactly what an enemy might try to do today.

July 7,  2014     Permalink

FIRING THE BEST – AT 9:07 A.M. ET:  In the face of threats that grow daily, Obama's America is downsizing our armed forces.  We are literally firing excellent, experienced young officers.  Others, in disgust, are leaving before they get the ax.  There are human stories here, stories of the Obama administration turning its back on America's fighters.  From Fox: 

A U.S. Army captain with more than a dozen years in the service, including multiple tours of duty in combat zones, assumed his job was safe.

The non-commissioned officer-turned-officer knew the service was downsizing after more than a decade of war. But he figured he'd be one of the lucky ones, in part because of his tours in Bosnia, Kosovo and, most recently, Afghanistan. What's more, he had just received orders to move to a new duty station.

So he and his wife, who's newly pregnant with their first child, signed a lease and put a deposit on a home at the family's next location. A few days later, he was called into his post's commanding general's office and informed that, effective almost immediately, he would no longer be in the military.

"I was led to believe that everything was good to go, and next thing you know, Monday morning, you're having to talk to the man," said the captain, who requested anonymity to speak freely about the incident and without professional repercussions. "You never think it's going to happen to you."

The Army last week began notifying about 1,100 captains that they will be purged from the ranks. The same fate is awaiting about 500 majors, who beginning this week will be told their active-duty careers are over. They're among nearly 2,500 officers and NCOs who will be involuntarily separated this year as part of an ongoing drawdown of forces.

After growing in size to 570,000 soldiers in 2008 at the height of the war in Iraq, the Army has less than 520,000 soldiers today and is on pace to shrink to 490,000 soldiers by next year. It's bracing for even further contraction driven by automatic budget cuts known as sequestration.

The Pentagon's proposed budget for fiscal 2015, which begins Oct. 1, calls for the service's headcount to decrease to 440,000 to 450,000 soldiers by fiscal 2017. If sequestration remains in effect, the number may fall to as low as 420,000 soldiers – tens of thousands less than what the Army's top officer, Gen. Raymond Odierno, said is needed to adequately respond to conflicts around the world.

Even officers who escaped the current round of dismissals criticized the move, saying it encourages talented leaders to leave the service.

"It really is disheartening to see the Army engaging in force shaping in the manner that it is," one said. "I've seen many of my fellow company-grade officers decide to get out because of the uncertainty over pay and future promotions. We're losing those who can get jobs, which means the Army is losing the talent it should be retaining."

COMMENT:  Note the deep concern by a government that allowed the Veterans Administration to go right down the drain. 

And note the contrast between the cold dismissal of combat veterans who have served this country and the warm welcome given to illegals flooding across our southern border.  One congresswoman brought lollipops to the border.  No lollipops, I guess, for the children of veterans.

July 7,  2014     Permalink